As it enters its ninth year, it’s fair to say that the Nintendo Switch has been quite the sales hit. Like, 150 million units, third best-selling console of all time, kind of a hit. We’ve previously heard analysts make the low-hanging fruit prediction that Switch 2’s sales numbers might not live up to that of its predecessor, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t come out of the gates at a full-on sprint — at least, that’s what Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda is expecting.
In a recent blog post on the Japanese GamesIndustry.biz website (via Tech4Gamers), Yasuda stated that he expects the Switch 2 to shift an impressive six million units in its first quarter — the second quarter of FY 2025/26 — assuming the console lands a July release. This, according to Yasuda would be an “incredible number” and could “completely shatter the widespread industry superstition that game consoles must be released during the year-end sales season” (translated via Google).
The analyst points to Nintendo’s production history and inventory stock to explain his calculation. According to Yasuda, Nintendo upped its inventory in Q3 of this financial year — months where stock generally sees a decrease after the holiday sales period — suggesting that the company is hard at work preparing what comes next.
It’s worth bearing in mind that production of the PS5 was assumed to have begun five months before its release and that went on to sell 4.5 million units in its first quarter. If Yasuda’s estimates are to be believed, the period between production and release for Switch 2 will have been much longer, potentially putting Q1 sales above that six million prediction.
With the stock increase landing halfway through the FY before the Switch 2 launch, Yasuda believes that Nintendo is planning to flood the market with Switch 2, “creating a situation where PlayStation cannot catch up” and “settle the battle for this generation (against PS6)”. Heck, shifting six million Switch 2s sure would give Sony some catching up to do down the line.
Just for reference, ‘Switch 1’ sold 2.74 million units to cap off its first quarter in March 2017 (it released on 3rd March, let’s not forget) and a further 1.97 million the following quarter. But the hybrid was scarce at launch. Not PS5 scarce, but far from as readily available as you might like. We’d wager Nintendo doesn’t want a repeat of the same situation with its follow-up.
Look, Switch 2 anticipation has been bubbling away for so many years now that we fully expect to see some big sales numbers in its first quarter, but to put up six million with a Summer release? That would be huge, particularly when you think about how many customers will likely wait for the holidays before picking one up. Hmm, we’re just going to have to wait and see.
Do you think we’re going to see Switch 2 sales numbers this big in its first quarter? Let us know in the comments.
[source jp.gamesindustry.biz, via tech4gamers.com]
